CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2024-03-17T03:12:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2024-03-17T03:12ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/29628/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible as a partial halo directed towards the southwest in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 coronagraph imagery. The source is a filament eruption spanning S45E05 to S15W40 seen in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, and 304 imagery starting around 2024-03-17T02:30Z. Dimming is visible from the eruption site shortly after the filament lifts-off, starting around 02:37Z, seen in SDO AIA 193 and field line movement can be seen near the S/SW limb at this time in SDO AIA 171. Post-eruptive loops begin to form around 04:30Z as seen in SDO AIA 171 and 193 imagery. This event partially overlaps CME: 2024-03-17T03:36Z, which also likely occurs from the same filament eruption. Arrival signature is likely of a combined arrival of these two CMEs. It is characterized by an increase in magnetic field to 14nT in what is likely the CME sheath, followed after 2024-03-21T10:49Z by smooth rotation of magnetic field components in what is likely the flux rope.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-03-21T01:50Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-03-20T11:07Z (-8.77h, +6.6h)
Prediction Method: CMEFM v.0.1
Prediction Method Note:
Time of Launch: 2024/03/17 02:45Z Plane of Sky 1: 13:30Z; 31.5Rsun; S Direction Plane of Sky 2: 15:30Z; 31.5Rsun; N Direction POS Difference: 2:00 POS Midpoint: 14:30Z TOL/Midpoint Difference: 11:45 Numeric View/Impact Type: 3 POS Difference Resulted Value: ~6.84 Travel Time: ~6.84 * 11:45 = 80:22 Predicted L1 Arrival: 2024-03-20T11:07Z Error Parameters: - POS Difference: 1 Hour - Travel Time: 5% Notes: Coronagraph Imagery Quality: 2/5Lead Time: 78.98 hour(s)
Difference: 14.72 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Garrett Imhoff (Other) on 2024-03-17T18:51Z
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